The trend that we are most interested in is a trend that has the possibility of creating a big wave. We want to find the trend that has the possibility of creating investment, product or corporate opportunities from which business or sales can occur.


A trend can cause many waves. The trend to high density digital circuits has spawned many waves of technology products including mainframe and tablet computers. A trend is a long term set of events that develop fundamental capabilities. A wave is a set of products that spin out of a trend. Unfortunately, it may take a long time for a wave to gestate. But a strong technology trend will probably set up a series of waves. And, you probably cannot foresee all of the variations that will derive from the basic technology. Again, look at the development and manufacture of the first transistor and one of its resultant products – the transistor radio.


There are always windows opening up and you probably need to catch only one to really position yourself for a great life. On the other hand, professional investors and investment bankers need to catch a lot of such windows to stay on top of their game and bring in the big windfalls necessary to support their lifestyle.


When something is too popular and it is the talk of the town - watch out for the bubbles! Greed takes a long time to simmer. Fear is instantaneous and we can get burnt quickly. There is an old expression which fits here - don't try to catch a falling knife.

Reviewed by Michael Radon


“In many cases, the most successful company or product is not the first product into the space!”


In this study of the patterns of the economy, the author’s aim is to help readers understand how to spot opportunities for investment or innovation. With real world parallels to the fields of technology and housing, every aspect of an emerging product space is explored. Any big motion in the market begins as a trend, with a product becoming a desired part of life with a wide range of consumers. From there, a wave is formed that brings similar or improved products into the marketplace to overshadow the original innovation. The concept of windows refers quite literally to the window of opportunity and how to get through it before it slams shut. Finally, bubbles are discussed as the inevitable overexpansion and death of any market space over time.


Although this is a complex economic process to understand, the author uses simple language and ideas to get this idea across. It is explained many times that just because one understands the process doesn’t mean that it becomes predictable or easy to manipulate, but the belief in this book is that there is still plenty of money in the market to be earned by a combination of risk and planning. The specific examples of businesses going through each stage of this process are of great help in understanding the book’s core concepts. After finishing this book, readers will have a better understanding of how commerce works behind the scenes and will have an easier time at least trying to plan for the best times to jump onto a product and when to cash out and look for a new investment.